One area of interest is over the Bahamas and drifting west toward Florida, but has a low probability of formation... the second just exited the African coast and has a medium (50%) chance of formation in the coming week.
I will start with discussing the tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are not too favorable for development in the next few days, but are expected to become more favorable toward the middle of next week as it tracks toward the west-northwest.
Among the American and European model ensembles, there is strong agreement that this will develop and probably reach hurricane intensity. Both ensembles also show the potential for a track into the Lesser Antilles around next Friday (the track maps below both end on Friday the 10th). Certainly something to watch very closely. The next name on the list is Jerry.
The disturbance near Florida could be a bigger trouble-maker than it would appear. Although it has a very low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, it has a very high chance of exaggerating flooding concerns -- not only from days of heavy rain, but for coastal areas, it's coming at a time when tides will also be exceptionally high for at least a week due to a perigean full moon. The image below shows the rainfall forecast over the coming week, in inches. Coastal/tidal flooding is a near-certainty in the region in the next 10+ days, so any rainfall on top of that would quickly make matters worse (especially if it occurs near high tides).
Also, to wrap up what happened with Humberto and Imelda over the past few days, there were not too many surprises; the outcome largely followed what I wrote in my previous post on Monday. Humberto and Imelda did interact with each other, and Imelda's track got tugged toward Humberto, sparing the southeast U.S. from what would have been a significant flooding event. However, in exchange, it got flung in the direction of Bermuda where it passed directly over the island as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday night (radar loops).
Here's a graphic I shared on Bluesky (full thread here) on Wednesday that illustrates the interaction between the two storms in a process commonly called the Fujiwhara Effect.
Now that there is a break in the activity, here's a look at the first nine storms of the season. Each storm's peak intensity, minimum pressure, and total ACE is listed on the right. So far this season, the Caribbean has been devoid of activity, and the Gulf of Mexico *almost* has been too (just short-lived Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche. That is likely to change in October when those areas typically become more of the focus for activity.
And as far as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) goes, that is now close to the climatological value for the date (93%). As of today, 2025 has had more ACE accrued than 2024 did by now (and 2022, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, etc). Historically, roughly 20% of a season's activity still lies ahead.
This season's activity has been quite exceptional. Of the four hurricanes, three of them were Category 4 and 5, and two of them were Category 5. How rare is it to have TWO Category 5s in a season? In the previous century, it's happened just eight times. And 2025 isn't over yet...
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