TD2 upgraded to Bret, hits Mexico...

Just two hours after being classified as TD2, it was upgraded to 
TS Bret.  Despite being very close to land, the observed sustained 
winds as well as the convective banding pattern certainly warranted 
this upgrade.  The last time we witnessed two named storms in June was 
1986 (Andrew and Bonnie)!  However, unlike 1986, BOTH of this year's 
storms made landfall.

Bret made landfall at ~12Z today as a 35kt tropical storm.  Radar 
images from Tampico showed a weak eye/eyewall structure at landfall... 
remarkable organization for a minimal tropical storm.  The center of 
Bret passed over Tuxpan, about 100 miles south of Tampico.  It is now 
moving inland and weakening rapidly.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD2 forms very near Mexican coast...

At 22Z today, an area of disturbed weather was upgraded to Tropical 
Depression 2 just 50 miles off the coast.  This will be very 
short-lived, as it's currently heading toward land (about 50 miles 
away).  Intensity measured by aircraft was 30kts and 1004mb.

It's located at 19.9N 95.7W and tracking WNW at 6kts.  Landfall is 
expected later this evening on the Mexican coast as a strong TD.  
There's a slight chance of it reaching minimal TS status before 
landfall, and if it does, it would be named Bret.  A Tropical Storm 
Warning has been issued for the coast between Tampico and Veracruz.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Western Caribbean becoming interesting...

Just during the day on Thursday, a concentrated area of convection 
formed over the extreme western Caribbean Sea, just off the tip of 
Honduras/Nicaragua (around 15N 82W).  There is visible evidence of
a defined mid-level circulation, and the trend with time is increasing 
cold cloud tops and more obvious circulation.

The SSTs in that region are 28-29C, and the vertical shear is 15kts 
and should decrease with time... making conditions favorable for 
development.  If a low-level circulation forms, this will become TD2, 
and would track WNW-NW, toward the Yucatan peninsula.  There is a 
chance the steering winds could be more easterly and this may drift 
over Central America which would remove any chance of development in 
the Atlantic basin.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.