Just during the day on Thursday, a concentrated area of convection formed over the extreme western Caribbean Sea, just off the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua (around 15N 82W). There is visible evidence of a defined mid-level circulation, and the trend with time is increasing cold cloud tops and more obvious circulation. The SSTs in that region are 28-29C, and the vertical shear is 15kts and should decrease with time... making conditions favorable for development. If a low-level circulation forms, this will become TD2, and would track WNW-NW, toward the Yucatan peninsula. There is a chance the steering winds could be more easterly and this may drift over Central America which would remove any chance of development in the Atlantic basin.Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
23 June 2005
Western Caribbean becoming interesting...
Posted by at 5:56 PM