23 June 2005

Western Caribbean becoming interesting...

Just during the day on Thursday, a concentrated area of convection 
formed over the extreme western Caribbean Sea, just off the tip of 
Honduras/Nicaragua (around 15N 82W).  There is visible evidence of
a defined mid-level circulation, and the trend with time is increasing 
cold cloud tops and more obvious circulation.

The SSTs in that region are 28-29C, and the vertical shear is 15kts 
and should decrease with time... making conditions favorable for 
development.  If a low-level circulation forms, this will become TD2, 
and would track WNW-NW, toward the Yucatan peninsula.  There is a 
chance the steering winds could be more easterly and this may drift 
over Central America which would remove any chance of development in 
the Atlantic basin.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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