Fabian becomes first major hurricane of the season, western Caribbean looking very interesting...

During the past week, three new systems formed, TD9-TD11.  TD9 was short-lived
and disorganized as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Haiti on Aug 21-22.

On Aug 27, TD10 formed way out at 32W in the deep tropics, and was in fact a
very impressive eaterly wave that had previously trekked across Africa.  A mere
72 hours later, it was a major hurricane, Fabian.  During peak intensification
on the 30th, the MSLP fell 24mb in just 12 hours and reached a low of 940mb at
03Z on Sep 1.  As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian was located at 18.9N 56.8W and
tracking W at 10kts.  Intensity is 120kts and 949mb and is forecast to maintain
this intensity or weaken a bit over the next few days.  The eye is very small at
only 15 nautical miles in diameter, so perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur later
today.  The forecast track takes him generally WNW to NW, and by the weekend,
should begin recurvature well east of the US mainland.

Also in my absence, TD11 formed in the Gulf and became TS Grace, who made
landfall on the central TX coast on the morning of Aug 31.

A large area of disturbed weather is also brewing in the far west Caribbean Sea,
just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Conditions appear favorable for slow
development and it could become TD12 within a day or two.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Take a ride on the wavetrain...

Take a ride on the wavetrain...

Africa and the tropical Atlantic have become crowded with easterly
waves, greatly increasing the odds that at least one will develop.  As
many as 5 waves can be found from the Lesser Antilles eastward to
central Africa, some of which are looking quite interesting.

The westmost is the one we've been watching for a few days now,
presently at about 15N 65W and tracking W at 15kts.  It has had a
drastic increase in deep convection and some band-like features appear
to be forming.

Watching a large area of convection and a broad circulation at about 10N
40W (halfway between Lesser Antilles and Africa) that's tracking W at
15kts.  Also, a similar system to the previous is at about 10N 20W
(south of the Cape Verde Islands) and tracking W at 15kts.

Africa still has a couple fairly impressive MCCs (mesoscale convective
complexes) trekking westward across it and should be watched for
development over the next week as they enter the eastern Atlantic.

The majority of the computer models do not favor any of the systems
currently in the Atlantic, but do develop one that's over
western/central Africa now.

The next numbers/names on deck are 9/Fabian and 10/Grace.

I will be gone through 1 Sep for vacation, so that would be the next
update, assuming something's happening then.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Two easterly waves worth watching in the central Atlantic...

The wave and embedded Low I mentioned yesterday just east of the Lesser
Antilles is a bit less organized today, and in fact, appears to no
longer have an embedded Low.  It is at about 14N 55W and moving W at
15kts.

And the wave that exited the African coast yesterday is now passing west
of the Cape Verde Islands and tracking W at 10kts.  The axis of the wave
is at about 35W.

Of these two waves, the models favor the eastern one for development,
but not very significant.  However, a short wavelength wavetrain is
trekking across Africa and will eject a new easterly wave into the
tropical Atlantic about every two days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.