A very large, broad, easterly wave is located just south of the Cape Verde islands, with a disorganized low-mid-level circulation at about 12N 25W (easy to spot from the 07:25Z WindSat and 10:55Z ASCAT microwave scatterometer overpasses). It exited the coast about a day ago, and already has a weak anticyclone positioned over it, greatly reducing the vertical shear and enhancing outflow.
Nearly every global model develops the system substantially, bringing it northeast of the Lesser Antilles (roughly 20N 55W) as a hurricane in about a week.
I've been asked by a few people why the season has been so quiet so far. In reality, it hasn't been; it's been on par with climatology... by this date, an average season has had 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 0 major hurricanes, which is exactly what 2010 has seen. Given the continued favorable environment across most of the basin though, once the heart of the season is upon us (very soon), people will be asking why there are so many storms! The bulk of a season's activity typically comes in a relatively short timeframe: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
19 August 2010
10 August 2010
Systems brewing over southern Florida and in central Atlantic...
A very large mid-upper-level Low that has been sitting over southern Florida is getting better organized and apparently developing a surface circulation based on surface and satellite observations. There are widespread thunderstorms associated with the 1010mb Low which is drifting to the WNW. The center of the circulation is just off the southwest FL peninsula, and is visible from the Key West radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
The forecast is for this to continue developing... reaching tropical storm intensity as it heads into the LA coast by late Thursday.
The other area of interest is the one I mentioned back in my last update on the 6th... it is now in the middle of the basin, about 800 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands. It is in a strongly sheared environment and although it has persistent deep convection, it's all northeast of the low-level center. Many forecast models do bring it up to TS intensity soon, and recurve it in a day or so, taking it out to the far north central Atlantic (i.e. tropical cyclone graveyard).
At this point, it's hard to say which of the systems could get named first, but if they both do, the next names on the list are Danielle and Earl.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The forecast is for this to continue developing... reaching tropical storm intensity as it heads into the LA coast by late Thursday.
The other area of interest is the one I mentioned back in my last update on the 6th... it is now in the middle of the basin, about 800 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands. It is in a strongly sheared environment and although it has persistent deep convection, it's all northeast of the low-level center. Many forecast models do bring it up to TS intensity soon, and recurve it in a day or so, taking it out to the far north central Atlantic (i.e. tropical cyclone graveyard).
At this point, it's hard to say which of the systems could get named first, but if they both do, the next names on the list are Danielle and Earl.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
06 August 2010
Colin still heading over open ocean, two other disturbances getting active...
Colin is still suffering from strong vertical shear, and the tiny low-level circulation has been exposed on the west side of the deep convection. It has begun to recurve (at 67W) and will now make the journey into the open north Atlantic. On its way however, it will have an impact on Bermuda, likely bringing tropical storm conditions to the island on Saturday. The intensity at 15Z today is 40kts and 1007mb... it is forecast to reach 60kts as it makes the extra-tropical transition in a couple days.
The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning this week in the Caribbean has still not reached land, and is now just north of Honduras and looking surprisingly well-organized. There are impressive convective bands forming all around a mid-level center, vertical shear is low, but it only has perhaps 12 hours until it hits Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. There is a slight chance that it could become a Depression prior to landfall.
There is a new easterly wave that is showing some signs of organization located about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde islands. It's still broad and not very convective, but the forecast is for gradual intensification as it heads northwest.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning this week in the Caribbean has still not reached land, and is now just north of Honduras and looking surprisingly well-organized. There are impressive convective bands forming all around a mid-level center, vertical shear is low, but it only has perhaps 12 hours until it hits Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. There is a slight chance that it could become a Depression prior to landfall.
There is a new easterly wave that is showing some signs of organization located about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde islands. It's still broad and not very convective, but the forecast is for gradual intensification as it heads northwest.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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