10 August 2010

Systems brewing over southern Florida and in central Atlantic...

A very large mid-upper-level Low that has been sitting over southern Florida is getting better organized and apparently developing a surface circulation based on surface and satellite observations.  There are widespread thunderstorms associated with the 1010mb Low which is drifting to the WNW.  The center of the circulation is just off the southwest FL peninsula, and is visible from the Key West radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
The forecast is for this to continue developing... reaching tropical storm intensity as it heads into the LA coast by late Thursday.

The other area of interest is the one I mentioned back in my last update on the 6th... it is now in the middle of the basin, about 800 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands.  It is in a strongly sheared environment and although it has persistent deep convection, it's all northeast of the low-level center.  Many forecast models do bring it up to TS intensity soon, and recurve it in a day or so, taking it out to the far north central Atlantic (i.e. tropical cyclone graveyard).

At this point, it's hard to say which of the systems could get named first, but if they both do, the next names on the list are Danielle and Earl.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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