Convection has returned to the remnants of Colin, and it seems to be very close to being re-classified as a tropical storm (an aircraft will investigate it later today). The vertical shear has relaxed a bit to about 25kts, though the low-level center is still exposed on the far western edge of the convection. It is located 300 miles north of Puerto Rico and moving NW at 15kts.
Many models indicate that the vertical shear is going to relax further and reach a minimum this weekend, perhaps allowing Colin to reach hurricane intensity. It is also still expected to recurve by 70W and head back out over the open north Atlantic.
The system in the central Caribbean has moved westward and is now located 300 miles southwest of Jamaica. There is very little evidence of a low-level circulation, and given its rapid movement, it will almost certainly be over central America before it has a chance to develop.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
05 August 2010
04 August 2010
Colin comes and goes, new disturbance in Caribbean...
Since my update on Monday, TD4 was upgraded to TS Colin, but quickly downgraded to a Depression and then to an open wave. As of midday Wednesday, the remnants of Colin are located just northeast of the Leeward Islands and moving very quickly to the WNW. The strong vertical wind shear overwhelmed the young storm, and for next 1-2 days, it will be in the same environment. However, after that, there is a potential for re-development, perhaps even reaching hurricane intensity. There is a lot of agreement among the forecast models that the storm will recurve well before reaching the US, probably by 70W.
The other disturbance is an African easterly wave that looked fairly innocent during the bulk of its journey across the basin, but has recently become more convective. It's located in the central Caribbean, between Haiti and Colombia, and heading W at about 12kts. As far as the forecast goes, it appears that it will continue its current heading, cross over the Yucatan peninsula in about 3 days, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. Should this get named, the next name is Danielle.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The other disturbance is an African easterly wave that looked fairly innocent during the bulk of its journey across the basin, but has recently become more convective. It's located in the central Caribbean, between Haiti and Colombia, and heading W at about 12kts. As far as the forecast goes, it appears that it will continue its current heading, cross over the Yucatan peninsula in about 3 days, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. Should this get named, the next name is Danielle.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
02 August 2010
TD4 forms far from land...
An easterly wave that exited the African continent back on July 29 has gradually gotten better organized, and was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 at 15Z today based on microwave satellite data. Intensity is estimated to be 30kts and 1006mb, and is moving WNW at 15kts. It presently located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The forecast is for continued slow strengthening over the next couple of days, then perhaps only maintaining intensity after that as it heads into a less favorable environment (strong vertical shear). By Thursday or so, we should have a clear idea of whether or not the storm will recurve to the north or if the track will flatten out a bit and maintain a WNW heading. If it recurves, it's destined to head out into the open ocean, but it if doesn't recurve by the end of the week, then we have to start thinking about potential landfalls.
The next name on the list is Colin. Colin is a new name this season (all of the names are on a 6-year rotation, until retired due to a significant societal impact), replacing Charley which made landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte FL on August 13, 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane. While on the topic, other new names this season are Fiona (replaces Frances), Igor (replaces Ivan), and Julia (replaces Jeanne).
Since it's now August, several people have asked how this season stands compared to normal in terms of activity. 2010 is just slightly more active so far compared to an average season. We've seen 2 named storms (3 if TD4 gets named), 1 of which became a hurricane. Climatologically, there are 2 named storms and no hurricanes by this date.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The forecast is for continued slow strengthening over the next couple of days, then perhaps only maintaining intensity after that as it heads into a less favorable environment (strong vertical shear). By Thursday or so, we should have a clear idea of whether or not the storm will recurve to the north or if the track will flatten out a bit and maintain a WNW heading. If it recurves, it's destined to head out into the open ocean, but it if doesn't recurve by the end of the week, then we have to start thinking about potential landfalls.
The next name on the list is Colin. Colin is a new name this season (all of the names are on a 6-year rotation, until retired due to a significant societal impact), replacing Charley which made landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte FL on August 13, 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane. While on the topic, other new names this season are Fiona (replaces Frances), Igor (replaces Ivan), and Julia (replaces Jeanne).
Since it's now August, several people have asked how this season stands compared to normal in terms of activity. 2010 is just slightly more active so far compared to an average season. We've seen 2 named storms (3 if TD4 gets named), 1 of which became a hurricane. Climatologically, there are 2 named storms and no hurricanes by this date.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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