04 August 2010

Colin comes and goes, new disturbance in Caribbean...

Since my update on Monday, TD4 was upgraded to TS Colin, but quickly downgraded to a Depression and then to an open wave.  As of midday Wednesday, the remnants of Colin are located just northeast of the Leeward Islands and moving very quickly to the WNW.  The strong vertical wind shear overwhelmed the young storm, and for next 1-2 days, it will be in the same environment.  However, after that, there is a potential for re-development, perhaps even reaching hurricane intensity.  There is a lot of agreement among the forecast models that the storm will recurve well before reaching the US, probably by 70W.

The other disturbance is an African easterly wave that looked fairly innocent during the bulk of its journey across the basin, but has recently become more convective.  It's located in the central Caribbean, between Haiti and Colombia, and heading W at about 12kts.  As far as the forecast goes, it appears that it will continue its current heading, cross over the Yucatan peninsula in about 3 days, then enter the Gulf of Mexico.  Should this get named, the next name is Danielle.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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