TD Chris never did regenerate, and dissipated early Saturday morning
near the northern Cuba coast. The remnants, an open easterly wave, can
still be found in the central Gulf of Mexico.
The potent easterly wave that I first mentioned last Wednesday has
continued its trek across the basin. It formed over the Ethiopian
Highlands around July 26, exited Africa on August 2, and is now about
1500km east of the Windward Islands. It has a very well-defined surface
circulation, but is lacking deep convection (though the trend of that
has been upward the past few hours). Environmental conditions appear
quite favorable for further development, and this will likely become TD4
later today or tonight. The embedded Low has a pressure of about
1009mb, and is located at approximately 12.5N 43.0W, tracking W at
15kts. Forecast models take it WNW toward the Leeward Islands and
Hispaniola over the next 5 days, and intensify it to a strong TS or
minimal hurricane.
Another healthy wave has just exited the African coast on Sunday and is
presently at about 24W.
There is a convectively-active tropical wave also located at about 70W,
but shows no signs of circulation.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
07 August 2006
04 August 2006
Chris weakens to a Depression...
Deep convection has failed to regenerate over the center of Chris, and in the face of persistent strong vertical shear, the system was downgraded this morning to a Depression. It's currently a poorly defined low-level swirl over the Turk Islands. The surface circulation is generating heavy rain over Hispaniola to the south.
The majority of forecast models take Chris westward over the next 5 days, ending up in southern TX or northern Mexico. Some track it over Cuba, some track it over the Florida Straight, which will make a huge difference in intensity. The 5-day intensity forecasts vary from minimal TS to minimal hurricane, and the official forecast calls for 45kts in 5 days. The hefty vertical shear lately is due to a tag-team effort of two upper-level Lows... once Chris passes by them, a large ridge centered over the eastern US should shelter the storm and steer it due west.
SSTs in the Gulf are 29-30C, so that will not be a problem: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf15.php
Elsewhere, the two previously-mentioned easterly waves are still tracking across the basin at about 15kts... they are presently at about 48W and 22W.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The majority of forecast models take Chris westward over the next 5 days, ending up in southern TX or northern Mexico. Some track it over Cuba, some track it over the Florida Straight, which will make a huge difference in intensity. The 5-day intensity forecasts vary from minimal TS to minimal hurricane, and the official forecast calls for 45kts in 5 days. The hefty vertical shear lately is due to a tag-team effort of two upper-level Lows... once Chris passes by them, a large ridge centered over the eastern US should shelter the storm and steer it due west.
SSTs in the Gulf are 29-30C, so that will not be a problem: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf15.php
Elsewhere, the two previously-mentioned easterly waves are still tracking across the basin at about 15kts... they are presently at about 48W and 22W.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
03 August 2006
Chris abruptly weakens...
Wednesday was characterized by intense deep convection, even up through early evening. Then, toward the end of the day and throughout the night, the system was attacked by increased northerly vertical shear and very dry low-mid level air, choking off and stripping off all convection. As of this morning, all that remains is a shallow surface circulation, roughly north of eastern Dominican Republic. The latest intensity is 35kts and 1012mb.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
You can still find a running radar loop of Chris at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/chris06/Chris_02Aug06.gif ... it begins Wednesday morning and is still being added to. Parental notice: the loop contains a violent dismemberment, only intended for mature audiences (rated TC 13).
Chris is barely holding onto TS status, and is forecast to degenerate into a Depression shortly. Although the official forecast holds the system at 30kts for the next 5 days, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that environmental conditions will improve, and this low-level vortex over steamy SSTs will take advantage of it. The steering flow will remain toward the WNW at 10kts. This will still take Chris, at whatever intensity, near the Florida Straight and into the Gulf over the next 5 days.
There are two other areas of interest in the basin: both African Easterly Waves. One is at 43W, the other at about 19W. Both of these will be monitored for development, as the classic "Cape Verde season" picks up. The next names on the list are Debby and Ernesto.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
You can still find a running radar loop of Chris at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/chris06/Chris_02Aug06.gif ... it begins Wednesday morning and is still being added to. Parental notice: the loop contains a violent dismemberment, only intended for mature audiences (rated TC 13).
Chris is barely holding onto TS status, and is forecast to degenerate into a Depression shortly. Although the official forecast holds the system at 30kts for the next 5 days, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that environmental conditions will improve, and this low-level vortex over steamy SSTs will take advantage of it. The steering flow will remain toward the WNW at 10kts. This will still take Chris, at whatever intensity, near the Florida Straight and into the Gulf over the next 5 days.
There are two other areas of interest in the basin: both African Easterly Waves. One is at 43W, the other at about 19W. Both of these will be monitored for development, as the classic "Cape Verde season" picks up. The next names on the list are Debby and Ernesto.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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