TD Chris never did regenerate, and dissipated early Saturday morning
near the northern Cuba coast. The remnants, an open easterly wave, can
still be found in the central Gulf of Mexico.
The potent easterly wave that I first mentioned last Wednesday has
continued its trek across the basin. It formed over the Ethiopian
Highlands around July 26, exited Africa on August 2, and is now about
1500km east of the Windward Islands. It has a very well-defined surface
circulation, but is lacking deep convection (though the trend of that
has been upward the past few hours). Environmental conditions appear
quite favorable for further development, and this will likely become TD4
later today or tonight. The embedded Low has a pressure of about
1009mb, and is located at approximately 12.5N 43.0W, tracking W at
15kts. Forecast models take it WNW toward the Leeward Islands and
Hispaniola over the next 5 days, and intensify it to a strong TS or
minimal hurricane.
Another healthy wave has just exited the African coast on Sunday and is
presently at about 24W.
There is a convectively-active tropical wave also located at about 70W,
but shows no signs of circulation.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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