03 September 2018

Tropical Storm Gordon formed, and it’s heading into the Gulf of Mexico

Details on Gordon and Florence can be found in my Labor Day update on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog:

Tropical Storm Gordon formed, and it’s heading into the Gulf of Mexico

Gordon formed over the Upper Florida Keys on Monday morning and is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the entire southern and central peninsula.  This is the same system I mentioned in last Wednesday's post.

I have a couple long radar loops running to cover Gordon at http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

I'm not typically a big critic of the National Hurricane Center, but they transitioned this system from an "Invest" to a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" late Sunday afternoon, solely to enable them to issue advisories, watches, warnings, and forecasts for this thing that hadn't yet formed. Their own forecast at the time indicated a borderline tropical storm passing directly over the Florida Keys on Monday morning, yet no watches or warnings were issued for Florida until such conditions were already occurring and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon on Monday.  This defeats the point of the Potential Tropical Cyclone feature. They did issue tropical storm watches for part of the northern Gulf coast, but the more immediate and obvious threat was strangely forgotten.

Florence remains a potential threat to the U.S. in the middle of next week, but that is a long way out.  The European model's ensemble has several members approaching the southeast and mid-Atlantic states in ten days.  We shall see.

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