12 September 2013

TD10 forming in Bay of Campeche, Gabrielle and Humberto update

All signs point to Tropical Depression 10 forming in the Bay of Campeche this afternoon.  The disturbance that I mentioned in Tuesday's update has crossed the Yucatan peninsula and is now back over water.  As the models predicted, it is taking shape and getting better organized.

Afternoon visible satellite image over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  (CIRA/RAMMB)
As I write this, an aircraft is en route to reconnoiter the developing storm, but earlier today, a satellite that measures surface wind speeds passed over the area and observed what certainly looks like a closed circulation to me.

Surface winds as seen from the ASCAT instrument at 12:25pm EDT today showing a circulation centered in the middle of the Bay of Campeche.  (OSI SAF)
I also have radar loops available at http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ where you can monitor the progress of the storm when it's close to the coast.  The loop from Sabancuy started at 7am EDT today and shows it leaving the peninsula.  The loop from Alvarado will be handy in the coming days.

The model guidance remains in agreement on the track and intensity (in general).  While there are some differences, the system is expected to move quite slowly to the W or WNW toward Mexico, and intensify.  At the moment, the strongest it is forecast to get is a minimal hurricane, but most models keep it at tropical storm intensity with a landfall sometime early next week.

The next name on the list is Ingrid.

GABRIELLE

Gabrielle weakened to a Depression when it was at its closest approach to Bermuda, but has since re-intensified to a Tropical Storm.  It's now about 200 miles NW of Bermuda, but this last gasp will be short-lived.  Environmental conditions will soon become too hostile and it will dissipate as it heads toward an encounter with Nova Scotia on Friday evening.

Enhanced satellite image of Tropical Storm Gabrielle on Thursday afternoon.  The strong thunderstorms (white) are far displaced from the surface circulation (yellow).  Bermuda is southeast of the storm. (NOAA)
HUMBERTO

Humberto has now been a hurricane for nearly two days, and it might have one more day to go before it weakens.  It is located about 460 miles northwest of the northernmost of the Cape Verde islands.  The figure below shows the past track in gray, the current location as a red hurricane symbol, and various model forecast tracks in colored lines.



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