|Enhanced satellite image of former Gabrielle. The center (marked with a red L) is nearly exposed on the northwest side of the deep convection. The sharp boundary of the high clouds there is indicative of strong vertical shear. (NOAA)|
The track guidance is all over the place, largely due to the uncertainty in whether or not it regains some sort of organization. Not all models agree on that, so of course, not all models agree on a similar track.
Elsewhere, there is a strong easterly wave located approximately 700 miles west of the Cape Verde islands. It exited the African coast back on Sept 2. As you can see below, it's not very well organized at all yet.
Most models bring it N-NW for another day or so, then flatten out to a more W course for several days. Even in five days, it will still be short of the Lesser Antilles, so there is time to see how this one evolves. I'll add additional details in a future post, but for now, it's at least worth pointing out.
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