15 September 2013

Hurricane Ingrid to hit Mexico tonight

Ingrid did what so  many storms in the Bay of Campeche do: intensify really fast in a small amount of space.

In the past 24 hours (09Z yesterday - 09Z today), the central pressure fell just 5mb, but the winds increased by 25kts.  Further intensification is expected, perhaps reaching Category 2 status at landfall overnight.  One key factor in limiting really rapid intensification is actually another tropical cyclone!  Tropical Storm Manuel is on the other side of Mexico and the upper-level circulation over each cyclone is producing wind shear over the other.

Tropical Storm Manuel in the East Pacific, and Hurricane Ingrid in the Gulf of Mexico are "attacking" Mexico from both sides today.  (CIRA/RAMMB)
Ingrid is located about 150 miles east of Tampico, and tracking northwest at 7mph.  Maximum winds are 85mph and it is expected to make landfall .  Again, rainfall will be a major concern, with 1-2 feet forecast over a fairly large area.  Along the coast and to the north of where it makes landfall, a 3-5 foot storm surge is expected as well.  Extreme south Texas could also get several inches of rain from Ingrid in the coming days.

Unfortunately, radar coverage of landfall is hindered due to technical problems with the radar in Altamira, Mexico.  The radars in Alvarado, Mexico and Brownsville, Texas are too far away.  However, there are a variety of satellite loops available at http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/atlantic/

Elsewhere, Humberto has temporarily weakened below Depression status, but is being watched for likely regeneration... still in the middle of the Atlantic.

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