29 July 2011

TS Don making landfall, new disturbance brewing...

Tropical Storm Don has not gotten much better organized, and is now nearly ashore near Corpus Christi, TX.  The storm surge north of the landfall location should be quite small, perhaps 1-2', but the rain will be very heavy (and welcome), and there's always an elevated risk of tornadoes with landfalling tropical cyclones of any intensity.
The latest radar loop from Corpus can be found at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CRP&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The intensity as of 21Z today was 45kts and 1004mb, and heading WNW at 14kts.  Being such a small system, it will dissipate quickly once inland.

Much further east, there's an impressive easterly wave near 10N 45W (1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles) that exited the African coast back on July 24.  It is very well organized, and nearly every model is forecasting this to become a hurricane within 4-5 days as it heads WNW toward the Leeward Islands.  If named, the next name on the list is Emily.  More on this as it develops...

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

27 July 2011

Easterly wave finally in Gulf of Mexico... possible TX landfall

The African easterly wave that exited the African coast on July 17 (and the same one I mentioned in my last update on July 22) has become better organized and has entered the Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  The deep convection is displaced slightly to the southeast of the low-level center due to some vertical shear.  The SST is 28.8C and the vertical shear is expected to remain favorable.

The majority of reliable models bring this system up to a strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane in 2-3 days prior to a landfall in southern-central Texas on Friday night.  Though not yet a Depression, it could quickly intensity to TS Don in the coming 24 hours.  There will be an aircraft reconnaissance flight into the disturbance later today for an accurate intensity measurement.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

22 July 2011

Bret and Cindy come and go, possible action nearing Lesser Antilles

Sorry for the lack of updates during the past two named storms... I was vacationing in Miami since the 14th and got to experience the distant effects of Bret first-hand (wave height was 12" instead of 2" on July 17-18).

Tropical Depression 2 formed off the eastern coast of southern Florida on July 17, quickly became TS Bret, and zipped off to the northeast.  It reached a peak intensity of 55kts (996mb central pressure), and has since weakened, now barely holding onto Tropical Depression status.  As of the final advisory at 15Z today, the intensity was 30kts, 1009mb, and tracking NE at 18kts.  It's located about 550 miles east of Delaware and has lost its tropical characteristics.

On July 20, Tropical Storm Cindy formed about 500 miles east of Bermuda.  It has always had a subtropical appearance, and it continues to struggle maintaining TS status.  The SST under the storm is 19C and dropping fast (will be about 13C in 24 hours) and the vertical shear is 25kts.

Elsewhere, there is an easterly wave located at about 55W.  This wave exited the African coast on July 17, and has had persistent convection associated with it.  The limited number of statistical forecast models that have been run on it generally develop this system and bring it WNW toward Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 3-5 days.  We will see what the dynamical models produce once they are run on it later today.  Should this get named, the next name on the list is Don.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.