27 July 2011

Easterly wave finally in Gulf of Mexico... possible TX landfall

The African easterly wave that exited the African coast on July 17 (and the same one I mentioned in my last update on July 22) has become better organized and has entered the Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  The deep convection is displaced slightly to the southeast of the low-level center due to some vertical shear.  The SST is 28.8C and the vertical shear is expected to remain favorable.

The majority of reliable models bring this system up to a strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane in 2-3 days prior to a landfall in southern-central Texas on Friday night.  Though not yet a Depression, it could quickly intensity to TS Don in the coming 24 hours.  There will be an aircraft reconnaissance flight into the disturbance later today for an accurate intensity measurement.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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