29 July 2011

TS Don making landfall, new disturbance brewing...

Tropical Storm Don has not gotten much better organized, and is now nearly ashore near Corpus Christi, TX.  The storm surge north of the landfall location should be quite small, perhaps 1-2', but the rain will be very heavy (and welcome), and there's always an elevated risk of tornadoes with landfalling tropical cyclones of any intensity.
The latest radar loop from Corpus can be found at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CRP&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The intensity as of 21Z today was 45kts and 1004mb, and heading WNW at 14kts.  Being such a small system, it will dissipate quickly once inland.

Much further east, there's an impressive easterly wave near 10N 45W (1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles) that exited the African coast back on July 24.  It is very well organized, and nearly every model is forecasting this to become a hurricane within 4-5 days as it heads WNW toward the Leeward Islands.  If named, the next name on the list is Emily.  More on this as it develops...

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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