14 June 2010

Early-season African wave getting better organized...

This is my first update of the 2010 Atlantic season, so to all of the long-time subscribers, thank you for your continued interest, and to the newcomers, welcome!  This marks the 15th consecutive year for these tropical updates, and some of you have been on the list since the beginning!  Your subscription management page is located here: http://mail.engr.colostate.edu/mailman/listinfo/ats-tropical

Back on June 9, an African easterly wave exited the western coast of Africa and has gradually gotten better organized as it trekked westward.  It's presently located near 10N 41W, or about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands.  It's moving WNW at 12-13kts and that motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  There is a 1010mb surface Low associated with the disturbance.

Although not very organized now, it is heading into progressively warmer sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content,  and the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low for the next couple of days.  The satellite presentation is much more impressive today than it has been the last two days.  Should this reach tropical storm intensity, the first name of the season is Alex.

It is early in the season to get a "Cape Verde" system to develop, but this season is forecast to be extremely active, as conditions basin-wide are a candy store for tropical cyclones.  Storms in the same location as this one presently is typically end up in the Gulf of Mexico in about 1.5 weeks from now.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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