15 June 2010

Disturbance struggling in poor environment...

A combination of marginal vertical shear and decreased low-mid-level relative humidity seems to have taken a toll on the developing vortex.  Deep convection associated with the disturbance has diminished, and it's now an exposed swirl of clouds centered near 13N 46W and tracking WNW at 13kts.  It is not expected to regenerate.  See http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/atcf/latestATL.png for the current location and prior track.

Switching gears to the season in general, we have 4 new names in the roster to replace retired names from the historic Florida-centric 2004 season (there is a 6-year rotation of names).  Colin will replace Charley, Fiona will replace Frances, Igor will replace Ivan, and Julia will replace Jeanne.  No names were retired last season, which has only happened 4 other times in the past 20 years: 1993, 1994, 1997, and 2006.

Due to large-scale environmental factors, this season is expected to be very active.  Using a 50-year climatology, the Atlantic basin typically gets 9.6 tropical storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.  The CSU forecast for this season is 18 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.  See http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf for details.  The seasonal forecast from NOAA is also available here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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