02 August 2007

Strong wave enters the Caribbean...

The system is now in the southeast Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico, and sporting a very large cold CDO.  It has sped up, tracking W at 20kts, and entering a climatologically unfavorable area for development due to strong vertical wind shear (home of the 20-30kt Caribbean low-level jet AND sometimes an upper-level TUTT, or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough).  However, there is a remote chance that it could develop there (not unprecedented); otherwise, wait until it's through and in the western Caribbean.
With the exception of the temporary increased shear in its near future, conditions are very favorable for intensification to a TS and hurricane during the weekend.  The model track guidance suggests a W-WNW path toward Mexico.

An easterly wave on the coast of Africa will also bear watching over the coming days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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