16 August 2007

Dean rapidly gaining strength, Erin makes landfall...

Dean has internsified substantially over the past 24 hours, and at 09Z this morning was upgraded to the first hurricane of the season.  In the past day, maximum sustained winds have increased by 30kts and the MSLP fell 18mb.  The satellite presentation is nearly flawless now, with symmetric outflow aloft, deep covection over the center, and an eye that's 90% formed.

Hurricane Dean is presently located at 13.9N 55.5W and as of the 15Z advisory from NHC the intensity was 80kts and 979mb. It's moving briskly to the west at 21kts.  The forecast is for continued intensification, crossing the Leeward Islands tomorrow morning as a strong CAT2 hurricane, then passing near Jamaica on Sunday as a strong CAT3 hurricane.  The current forecast has a direct hit on Cancun as a CAT4 storm early Tuesday morning.  Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect for nearly all of the Leeward Islands.

For those who are interested, you can view a radar loop (adding new frames every 15 minutes) of Dean's passage through the central Leeward Islands at:

It should pass over the islands at about 6am EDT.
Erin made landfall early this morning near Corpus Christi, TX as a minimal Tropical Storm.  The storm is now inland and weakening quickly, with the remaining threat being heavy rain.
There is a radar loop of Erin making landfall available at

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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