01 August 2007

Chantal dissipates... TD4 in the making?

The final advisory was written on TS Chantal last night, at an intensity of 45kts and 994mb.  The storm was absorbed by the mid-latitude trough as expected and the remnants are near Newfoundland now.

However, the easterly wave approaching the Leeward Islands has gotten much better organized, with a more compact mid-level circulation and more persistent deep convection.  It's now near 13N 58W or very close to Barbados and an aircraft recon flight into it is scheduled later today.  Conditions are favorable for it... fairly low vertical shear, and SSTs are presently 27.5C and will increase to 28.5C+ over the next few days as it tracks westward through the Caribbean.  This has the potential to be a TS by tomorrow and the season's first hurricane by the weekend.  The next name on the list is Dean.

The wave that exited Africa yesterday is now near the Cape Verde Islands and shows signs of increased organization; a 1009mb Low is associated with it with spotty convective bursts.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment