26 September 2006

Stubborn wave nearly a depression...

The easterly wave that left the African coast on Sept 18 is still intact, and has been on the threshold of being upgraded to a Depression for the past couple days.  It's had persistent deep convection, but no luck closing off a surface circulation.  There's a broad 1009mb Low associated with it, located at about 23N 50W.  It's in about 15kts of westerly wind shear, and over almost 28C water.  The next number/name on deck is 9/Isaac.

There's an impressive wave just exiting the African coast today at about 11N 19W which is quite interesting.  Otherwise, the basin is quiet.  As we head into October, the favored cyclogenesis locations are the western Caribbean and off the US east coast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif -- a sign of the "Cape Verde season" shutting down due to higher shear over the central and eastern parts of the basin.

2006 is on par with climatology so far, almost down to the day.  Using a 1944-2005 average, we typically have 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by this date, and we've actually had 8, 4, and 2.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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