09 August 2006

Possible Depression forming...

The tropical wave I had been mentioning since LAST Wednesday has finally entered a more favorable environment (the problem was primarily dry, stable air surrounding it) and has been sporting a cold CDO for the past 12-18 hours.  However, a recent aircraft flight into the system was unable to find a closed circulation, so for now, it remains a strong tropical wave.  There is decidedly a closed mid-level circulation though.  It is located over Barbados and tracking W at 15kts.  I was perusing a series of soundings from Barbados over the past 48 hours, and the precipitable water increased from 4.34cm to 5.56cm in that time... a likely sign that whatever Saharan Air Layer was present has since weakened/dispersed.

Forecast models take it WNW into the western Caribbean over the next 5 days.  Statistical models intensify it to at least a minimal hurricane, while the dynamical models don't even bring it up to a TS.  This will be an interesting "competition"!  If it develops, it would be TD4 or TS Debby.

The other two easterly waves at 38W and 86W are not of great concern right now; they suffer from dry air and high shear, respectively.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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