Ernesto made its way across Florida as a weak Tropical Storm and then Depression... then exited eastern FL near Cape Canaveral, and now heading NNE toward the SC/NC border. It's also getting better organized each hour that it's over the ocean, and could be upgraded to a minimal hurricane by landfall late tonight. The intensity as of 21Z today was 60kts and 991mb.
You can find an ever-growing radar loop of Ernesto's east coast approach at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/ernesto06/Ernesto_31Aug06_LTX.gif
As of this writing, the center is due east of Georgetown SC, due south of Wilmington NC, and heading NNE toward Cape Fear or perhaps Cape Lookout. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of SC and NC, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for northern SC and southern NC up to Cape Lookout
Across the rest of the basin, there is an impressive tropical wave near 11N 25W which certainly bears watching over the coming days. Another circulation can be found about 10 degrees west of that, and also has a shot at development, but the one to the east looks healthier now (better divergence aloft, less shear). The next names on deck are Florence and Gordon.
And of course, http://mcwar.org/tropics/ has the latest satellite imagery, track forecast, and more for the basin.
I'd also like to welcome several new additions to the mailing list, 6 in the past week alone! That brings the total up to about 310 subscribers... homeowners, students, teachers, media, military, enthusiasts, business owners, and more. I'm reminded of and humbled by the large number of people who've opted to subscribe to these updates! This is year #11 for them...
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