09 June 2005

TD1 becomes TS Arlene...

This morning, a ship near TD1 reported winds high enough to require upgrading TD1 to a Tropical Storm, the first of the season.  Arlene is still over very warm SSTs, but the shear has not relaxed as much as expected and the low-level center is exposed to the southwest.  This is still forecast to lessen in time as a ridge builds to the north of the storm.  The ridge would put Arlene in a more friendly shear environment, and will also be responsible for steering it toward the AL/MS coast.

At 21Z today, TS Arlene was located at 20.2N 84.2W and tracking N at 7kts.  Intensity estimated by satellite (a plane is en route) is 35kts and 1001mb.  It should accelerate and gradually intensify, making landfall on Saturday evening as a strong TS.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment