For several days now, there has been a broad area of disturbed weather over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the extreme western Caribbean Sea. It has gradually acquired a broad mid-level circulation and conditions are becoming more favorable for further development.
The SSTs in that area are 29C, which is actually about 2C above the average for this time of year! Vertical wind shear (defined as the wind speed/direction difference between 850mb and 200mb) is currently 20-25kts, but is forecast to weaken in the coming 1-2 days. Aircraft recon is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow if it still shows signs of organization.
Most computer models intensify it and track it north toward the US coast... somewhere in the Louisiana to Florida panhandle vicinity.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.