TS Erika ended up being a well-forecast storm, particularly in terms of the track. The intensity was persistently overforecast, and she never reached hurricane status. Although the MSLP dropped to 987mb and there was a beautiful eye as seen from radar, maximum reported winds were 60kts. Landfall occured on Saturday (August 16) at 11Z near Laguna Madre, Mexico. She ten continued westward acorss Mexico and if I'm not mistaken, has entered the East Pacific just south of the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Elsewhere, the tropical wave I mentioned in Friday's update is still intact and slowly organizing. Presently at about 14N 48W, it's tracking WNW at 12kts and has a 1014mb Low embedded in the wave. It is just crossing the 28C isotherm and SSTs will continue to be favorable; also, vertical shear is favorable for development. Lastly, a wave still over Africa seems favored by many models to develop, so we'll keep an eye on the deep tropics this week for perhaps a couple storms.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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