18 August 2003

Erika made landfall, tropical wave still traversing the central Atlantic...

TS Erika ended up being a well-forecast storm, particularly in terms of
the track.  The intensity was persistently overforecast, and she never
reached hurricane status.  Although the MSLP dropped to 987mb and there
was a beautiful eye as seen from radar, maximum reported winds were
60kts.  Landfall occured on Saturday (August 16) at 11Z near Laguna
Madre, Mexico.  She ten continued westward acorss Mexico and if I'm not
mistaken, has entered the East Pacific just south of the tip of the Baja

Elsewhere, the tropical wave I mentioned in Friday's update is still
intact and slowly organizing.  Presently at about 14N 48W, it's tracking
WNW at 12kts and has a 1014mb Low embedded in the wave.  It is just
crossing the 28C isotherm and SSTs will continue to be favorable; also,
vertical shear is favorable for development.  Lastly, a wave still over
Africa seems favored by many models to develop, so we'll keep an eye on
the deep tropics this week for perhaps a couple storms.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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