14 August 2003

Development in the Gulf...

A feature I've been watching for several days (seemingly spawned by an
upper-level Low closer to Bermuda), approached the U.S. mainland
yesterday and just crossed the central Florida peninsula.  It has
gradually been getting better organized and deep convection has been
persistent.  It's now near 27N 83W, MSLP of 1013mb, and showing signs of
banding as it enters the Gulf of Mexico west of Fort Meyers, FL.

Aircraft recon into the system was unable to locate a closed surface
circulation, but the mid-level circulation is very well defined as
evident on satellite imagery.  You can also see the mid-level
circulation on Tampa's NEXRAD radar

It seems likely that this will develop into TD8 sometime today, and
perhaps a named storm within 24 hours (Erika is the next name). Some
model stuff: ETA and GFS are hesitant to intensify the system very much,
but they both track it due west into northern Mexico (Tampico-ish) on
Saturday morning.  NOGAPS keeps the same timing, but a bit further
north, around Brownsville.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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