September will end and still no hurricane this season

There's not too much to report in this post, so it will be brief. Fay is a dissipating tropical depression, and since my last post on Thursday, Gonzalo formed and dissipated near Cabo Verde.

12-hour infrared satellite animation from September 26.

Gonzalo was the 7th named storm of the season, though it only lasted for two days. In fact, there have been named storms for a TOTAL of 13.25 "named storm days" this season, which is 27% of average for the date.

Amazingly, the hurricane drought continues with nothing in the foreseeable future.  No hurricane season has gotten this far along without a hurricane in the past century, and during the more reliable satellite era (mid-1970s), the previous record latest first hurricane formation was September 11.

With both Fay and Gonzalo active as tropical storms on September 25, it became the most active day of the entire season so far, in terms of both named storm activity and Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE is up to 10.4% of average for the date. If nothing forms in the meantime, it will slip to 9% of average on October 8.

Looks like I picked an easy year as my final year for writing this blog!

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Still watching Fay, and Gonzalo could be on the near horizon

Two features of interest in this post: Tropical Storm Fay and Invest 90L -- which has a shot as becoming the next named storm, Gonzalo.

Since my previous post on Monday, Fay actually dissipated on Tuesday afternoon and then regenerated on Wednesday afternoon. It's currently a tropical storm located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores and moving slowly toward the west. It could intensify slightly today, but is not expected to get close to hurricane intensity, before it starts weakening again.

Fay is expected to dissipate, again, on Saturday. We'll see if it sticks this time.

Elsewhere, Invest 90L is the wave I discussed in Monday's post. It is currently just barely off the African coast, southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is forecast to move toward the northwest in the coming days.

In a normal year, these large robust tropical waves would be cause for potential concern in 10-14 days on the other side of the Atlantic basin, but this is not one of those years, thanks to the developing very strong El Niño which has suppressed activity across the deep tropics so far this season.

This has pretty decent model support to develop into the next named storm, Gonzalo, rather soon. After that, dry air and vertical wind shear will start to impact it and it could dissipate later in the weekend. There is no model support for it reaching hurricane intensity, which means the record hurricane drought in the Atlantic continues.

Fay's resurgence has nudged the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) up to 8% of average for the date... still a record-low value for this point in the season by a big margin during the reliable satellite era (mid-1970s).  Prior to the satellite era when some activity was certainly missed, only three years were lower: 1914, 1907, and 1905.

  

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Fay continues the record hurricane-free Atlantic hurricane season

On Saturday afternoon, a small low pressure system in the north central Atlantic (tagged as Invest 99L) was upgraded to Tropical Depression Six, and then upgraded again on Sunday morning to Tropical Storm Fay... the sixth named storm of the season.

As of Monday morning, Fay is located about 400 miles southwest of the Azores and not moving much. It's expected to start moving toward the southwest and dissipate in the next couple of days.

Fay has very likely peaked in intensity, just shy of hurricane status. So, there still has not been a hurricane this season. The previous record-latest first hurricane formation was September 11 (during the more reliable satellite era), so that record continues to be broken every day.  Prior to the satellite era, some storms were likely missed, but 1907 and 1914 have zero hurricanes in the database. Will 2026 join that small list?

The next decent shot at activity appears to be a wave coming off of Africa at the end of the week. I can trace it back to the Ethiopian Highlands on September 15-16. Most models develop and intensify it fairly quickly once it leaves the coast, so we'll see if that ends up becoming the first hurricane??  The next name on the list is Gonzalo.

The season statistics through today are 6 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes. The average by now is 9, 4, and 2. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that is at 7% of average for the date. Looking at the ACE timeline, the average season is about 2/3 over by today. If this current season is also 2/3 over, it will end up around 7% of average by the end of the official season on November 30.

The last time a season has less ACE that this was well before the satellite era: 1929, 1925, 1914, 1907, and 1905.

As I've described in previous posts, the reason for this anemic season is almost entirely the building strong El Niño. It's a well-established teleconnection that strong El Niño act to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and La Niñas act to enhance it. Well, there has never been an El Niño as strong as what this one is shaping up to be, so it seems reasonable that we're also seeing a record-quiet hurricane season.

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