2013 Atlantic hurricane season wrap-up: least active in 30 years

My 18th annual season summary is available on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog:

2013 Atlantic hurricane season wrap-up: least active in 30 years

Thanks for sharing another hurricane season with me, and for your continued interest.

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New disturbance in central Atlantic... Melissa?

It's been 25 days since the National Hurricane Center issued any advisory on an Atlantic tropical cyclone, but that streak could end shortly.  A large trough and upper-level Low pressure system has been gradually transitioning to a subtropical cyclone, and that in time could transition to a fully tropical cyclone.  The next name on the list is Melissa.

(NASA)

The subtropical nature is demonstrated by its origins as well as its current structure with fronts still attached to it.  The central pressure is down to 995mb, and tropical storm force winds already extend over 250 miles from the center.  It's nowhere near land... the closest reference point is Bermuda, roughly 750 miles west-northwest of this disturbance (centered near 29N 53W as of this post: see basin-scale map).

It is expected to drift slowly to the north over the next couple of days, then accelerate into the icy waters of the north Atlantic tropical cyclone graveyard.  The sea surface temperature under the storm is a comfortable 27C now, but in about 4 days, the SST will be around 20C and this system will certainly have transitioned back to an extratropical cyclone by then.

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Hurricane Mitch: 15 years later

With the combination of a dormant Atlantic right now and another significant anniversary today, I thought I'd write a short summary on Hurricane Mitch, one of the most intense, destructive, and deadly hurricanes in history.

On October 26, 1998, it achieved tropical cyclone perfection in the western Caribbean with a peak intensity of 180 mph (and 905mb central pressure).

Not only was it so close to Honduras and Nicaragua at this intensity (strongest winds were still offshore), but it virtually STALLED, taking five days to drift onto and across Honduras.  In the track map below, the large red circles represent Mitch at its most intense, then it weakened as it drifted slowly southward to landfall.

Although the peak winds may have died down prior to official landfall, the rain did not.  Up to 3 feet of rain fell in southern Honduras, but extreme totals were recorded over much of Central America.... and 10"+ amounts were also recorded in many parts of Mexico and then an isolated area in southern Florida as well.  Unofficial local reports in Honduras were up closer to 6 feet of rain.  Mudslides and flooding were especially devastating in Honduras, where about 70% of the country lost power, fresh water, transportation, and communication.

Mitch was responsible for approximately 19,000 deaths across ten countries, but the vast majority were in Honduras (14,600).  It remains the second deadliest hurricane in Atlantic history, trailing slightly behind the Great Hurricane of 1780 that claimed over 22,000 lives in the eastern Caribbean.

Here's your opportunity to stare a Category 5 hurricane in the eye!  Back in 1998, I made a high-resolution visible satellite loop available that is zoomed in over just the inner core.  I know there are folks who were subscribed to my email list/blog back then who are still subscribed, and I remember sharing the details of this monster hurricane with you as it unfolded, including this satellite loop.

This year, at the end of October, we don't have a Mitch, Wilma, or Sandy to worry about... the Atlantic is quiet for now.

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