Alex intensifying as it makes its way to the coast...

At 03Z today (11pm EDT Tuesday), Alex was upgraded to a hurricane, the first of the season.  It is the first hurricane to form in June since Allison in 1995.  At 15Z today, the intensity as measured by aircraft was 70kts and 961mb.  [if that seems like a very low pressure for that wind speed to you, you're right!... a 961mb storm would normally have winds of 95-100kts, but Alex is large and the organization has still not matured]
Further intensification is very likely today and up to landfall.

You can view a long radar loop (from Brownsville, and going back to first eyewall view):
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/alex10/Alex_30Jun10_long.gif

Landfall is expected late tonight, fortunately in a very sparsely-populated area of northern Mexico.  The closest major city is San Fernando, which should experience hurricane conditions, but is inland by about 40 miles, so it won't be affected by a storm surge.  However, the storm surge will be a bigger concern further north into Texas, such as Port Isabel, Padre Island National Seashore, Baffin Bay, and Corpus Christi Bay.  Sea levels up to 6' above normal can be expected toward Port Isabel, and gradually decreasing further north along the coast.  Even Galveston could see a surge of 2-3', and coastal areas affected by the oil spill will also see an increase in sea level, perhaps up to 1-2'.  On top of the storm surge will be larger and more violent waves than is characteristic of the Gulf.  Both coastal and inland areas in Alex's path will experience flooding as 6-20" of rain falls in the coming days (Brownsville as ALREADY received at least 3" of rain!). And of course, there is an elevated risk of tornadoes along Alex's path, particularly in the north side of the storm.

Here are observations from a coastal station in extreme southern Texas, Port Isabel:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8779770+Port+Isabel%2C+TX

And here are wave height observations from Gulf Shores, AL, an area representative of the oil spill region:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42012&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Alex getting stronger and heading for land...

Tropical Storm Alex has gotten much better organized in the past 24 hours.  The convection is becoming centralized and coalescing.  Intensity as of 15Z today is 60kts and 982mb.  It's very likely that by later today, Alex will become the season's first hurricane.  Northern Mexico and the southern tip of Texas up to Baffin Bay are under a Hurricane Warning, and a Tropical Storm Warning extends from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0110W_NL+gif/150122W_NL_sm.gif

Landfall is expected Wednesday night just south of the US/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane.  Large swells of 8-10' will spread across much of the Gulf today through Thursday.  The extreme southern tip of Texas could expect a storm surge up to 5' above normal tides (smaller surge further north in Corpus Christi, etc).  Inland rainfall is always a major threat with any landfalling tropical cyclone, and northeastern Mexico and southern Texas could get 6-12" of rain.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Alex has entered the Gulf of Mexico...

Since my update on Friday afternoon, TD1 was upgraded to TS Alex early the following day.  It made first landfall on Belize City, Belize as a 50kt tropical storm, tracked northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula, and entered the southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night.  Toward the end of the trip across the peninsula, it weakened slightly to a Depression, but almost immediately regained TS strength upon entering the warm Gulf waters.  At 15Z today, the intensity was 50kts and 989mb.

As of this writing, the bulk of the deep convection is located to the east of the low-level center, and it looks fairly ragged and disorganized, as one would expect after spending nearly a full day over land.  However, Alex is forecast to become a minimal CAT2 hurricane as it approaches the western Gulf, making landfall early Thursday morning near the US/Mexico border.  One thing I'll point out is that model guidance has been gradually shifting the landfall point further and further north with each new run.  I'd suspect that the official forecast track will follow that trend and nudge slightly northward with each advisory.

In the US, coastal areas can expect a storm surge up to 6' near Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and minimal up to at least the TX/LA border.  In the coming days, larger and larger swells and waves will make their debut in the north-central Gulf; certainly a negative impact on the oil leak situation.  Instead of the typical 3-4' swells offshore of LA, MS, AL, and northwest FL, swells of 8-10' will make their way up there by Wednesday.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.