Chris upgraded to hurricane, southern Gulf still brewing

An exceptionally rare and unforecast June hurricane is certainly not what anyone expected to be looking at today, but Chris took every opportunity to intensify.  At 15Z, the 65kt, 987mb hurricane was located near 41N 43W, or about 750 miles west of the Azores (don't get to reference those islands very often!).

Track guidance suggests that Chris will complete a little loop, then continue the northeast journey, passing north of the Azores but probably bringing some hefty weather to them in the coming days.

Elsewhere, the broad area of disturbed weather that was centered in the western Caribbean has oozed its way northwest as expected and is now roughly centered in the southeast Gulf of Mexico to the northern Yucatan peninsula.  It continues to show signs of organization, including a building mid-level circulation, a building anticyclone aloft, and persistent deep convection near the center.

An ASCAT overpass at 0327Z today (about 11 hours ago from this post) showed very tight curvature in the surface winds right off the tip of the Yucatan, but not quite a closed circulation.

Several models have become more aggressive with developing this system, and for the most part, agree with a slow crawl toward the north and a slow intensification.  This is still something worth keeping a close eye on for anyone along the northern Gulf coast (at this point, that includes Texas to Florida, perhaps with a little more weight toward the northeast Gulf coast).  If named, the next name on the list is Debby.  And climatologically, we only reach the "D" storm on August 23.  This would also be the first storm of the season to exist below 30N.  Of course, these are all contingent on it becoming more than a big cluster of thunderstorms!

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Chris forms, Caribbean disturbance lingering

Shortly after my update yesterday, the area of interest that I mentioned southeast of Nova Scotia was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the season.  Climatologically, we don't see the 3rd named storm until August 13, so this is most definitely an active start to the season!
As of 09Z today (5am EDT), the intensity was 40kts and 1005mb, and it was located about 600 miles south of Newfoundland... no threat to land.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather over Cuba and southern Florida continues to fester and spread copious rain over a large region. 
You can view a short radar loop from a mosaic of radars in Cuba at http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

Whether or not this blob can organize into a TC is not a big factor in how much rain it will produce... huge rainfall totals will be observed over Cuba and southern Florida, and the the graphic below from HPC shows the forecast rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (not counting what has already fallen):

The lowest surface pressures associated with this system are around 1009mb now, and computer models are not very bullish when it comes to developing it.  Over the next several days, it should linger, with a slow drift to the northwest.  By the weekend, perhaps models will get a grip on what its next move will be.  But since it will be in the Gulf, coastal residents in the Gulf should keep an eye on it... just in case!


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Two areas of interest in western Atlantic

There are a couple of areas of potential development: one is south of Nova Scotia and no threat to land, and the other is still a nebulous area of disturbed weather over Cuba and southern Florida.

First, the northern system.  This has been in the picture for several days now, but has gradually gotten better organized.  It has a chance of becoming a subtropical storm in the near future, but by Thursday, it will be too far into the north-central Atlantic TC graveyard.  It's presently about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia and forecast to head northeast.  It's presently over 23C water, and in 20kts of vertical shear, so while there is a possibility of this being classified as a named subtropical system, those chances are dwindling with time.

The southern system is an amorphous blob associated with a surface trough and a 1009mb Low over the western Caribbean. 

 The whole area is embedded in a wave of high TPW (total precipitable water), which is often a necessary condition for TC formation, and if nothing else, a key ingredient in heavy rainfall potential.  The loop below shows the westward movement of that higher TPW:

While this system is very disorganized now, it will still bring heavy rain to Cuba and southern Florida (perhaps up to 6"), and most likely drift NW toward Mexico or Texas over the next several days.  You can keep an eye on the rainfall over southern FL via Key West's radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


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