Deep convection has failed to regenerate over the center of Chris, and in the face of persistent strong vertical shear, the system was downgraded this morning to a Depression. It's currently a poorly defined low-level swirl over the Turk Islands. The surface circulation is generating heavy rain over Hispaniola to the south.
The majority of forecast models take Chris westward over the next 5 days, ending up in southern TX or northern Mexico. Some track it over Cuba, some track it over the Florida Straight, which will make a huge difference in intensity. The 5-day intensity forecasts vary from minimal TS to minimal hurricane, and the official forecast calls for 45kts in 5 days. The hefty vertical shear lately is due to a tag-team effort of two upper-level Lows... once Chris passes by them, a large ridge centered over the eastern US should shelter the storm and steer it due west.
SSTs in the Gulf are 29-30C, so that will not be a problem: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf15.php
Elsewhere, the two previously-mentioned easterly waves are still tracking across the basin at about 15kts... they are presently at about 48W and 22W.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
04 August 2006
03 August 2006
Chris abruptly weakens...
Wednesday was characterized by intense deep convection, even up through early evening. Then, toward the end of the day and throughout the night, the system was attacked by increased northerly vertical shear and very dry low-mid level air, choking off and stripping off all convection. As of this morning, all that remains is a shallow surface circulation, roughly north of eastern Dominican Republic. The latest intensity is 35kts and 1012mb.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
You can still find a running radar loop of Chris at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/chris06/Chris_02Aug06.gif ... it begins Wednesday morning and is still being added to. Parental notice: the loop contains a violent dismemberment, only intended for mature audiences (rated TC 13).
Chris is barely holding onto TS status, and is forecast to degenerate into a Depression shortly. Although the official forecast holds the system at 30kts for the next 5 days, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that environmental conditions will improve, and this low-level vortex over steamy SSTs will take advantage of it. The steering flow will remain toward the WNW at 10kts. This will still take Chris, at whatever intensity, near the Florida Straight and into the Gulf over the next 5 days.
There are two other areas of interest in the basin: both African Easterly Waves. One is at 43W, the other at about 19W. Both of these will be monitored for development, as the classic "Cape Verde season" picks up. The next names on the list are Debby and Ernesto.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
You can still find a running radar loop of Chris at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/chris06/Chris_02Aug06.gif ... it begins Wednesday morning and is still being added to. Parental notice: the loop contains a violent dismemberment, only intended for mature audiences (rated TC 13).
Chris is barely holding onto TS status, and is forecast to degenerate into a Depression shortly. Although the official forecast holds the system at 30kts for the next 5 days, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that environmental conditions will improve, and this low-level vortex over steamy SSTs will take advantage of it. The steering flow will remain toward the WNW at 10kts. This will still take Chris, at whatever intensity, near the Florida Straight and into the Gulf over the next 5 days.
There are two other areas of interest in the basin: both African Easterly Waves. One is at 43W, the other at about 19W. Both of these will be monitored for development, as the classic "Cape Verde season" picks up. The next names on the list are Debby and Ernesto.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
02 August 2006
Chris strengthens further...
Beginning Tuesday late afternoon, deep convection began firing closer to the center of Chris, accompanied by much more impressive aircraft data (increasing flight-level winds, noticeable pressure falls). This continued throughout the night, and today TS Chris is sporting a classic CDO (Central Dense Overcast) with cloud tops around -75C, and evidence of northerly wind shear... decreasing with time. Chris is a small storm, and as such, will be easily influenced by shear, but conversely, will be quick to bounce back. SSTs under and ahead of the storm are a cozy 28C.
At 15Z today, TS Chris was located at 19.2N 63.4W, or just north of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands. It is heading WNW at 9kts, and the latest intensity is 55kts and 1001mb. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands... a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the western islands of the Bahamas. You can monitor the progress of the storm via radar in San Juan at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Over the next few days, it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane, and continue a WNW heading, bringing it over the Bahamas on Saturday morning, and passing very close to southern Florida on Monday morning. The forecast track optimizes its stay over warm water and away from mountainous islands, allowing for the most intensification.
In the longer range, the central Gulf coast should be watching Chris with great interest. Once the storm passes over or near southern Florida on Sunday, the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. As of now, it appears that LA and TX would be the higher risks.
Elsewhere, a potent tropical wave just exited the African coast today. It had its earliest origins in the Ethiopian Highlands about a week ago and is favored by computer models to develop and become quite strong. The next name on deck is Debby.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
At 15Z today, TS Chris was located at 19.2N 63.4W, or just north of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands. It is heading WNW at 9kts, and the latest intensity is 55kts and 1001mb. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands... a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the western islands of the Bahamas. You can monitor the progress of the storm via radar in San Juan at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Over the next few days, it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane, and continue a WNW heading, bringing it over the Bahamas on Saturday morning, and passing very close to southern Florida on Monday morning. The forecast track optimizes its stay over warm water and away from mountainous islands, allowing for the most intensification.
In the longer range, the central Gulf coast should be watching Chris with great interest. Once the storm passes over or near southern Florida on Sunday, the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. As of now, it appears that LA and TX would be the higher risks.
Elsewhere, a potent tropical wave just exited the African coast today. It had its earliest origins in the Ethiopian Highlands about a week ago and is favored by computer models to develop and become quite strong. The next name on deck is Debby.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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