Beginning Tuesday late afternoon, deep convection began firing closer to the center of Chris, accompanied by much more impressive aircraft data (increasing flight-level winds, noticeable pressure falls). This continued throughout the night, and today TS Chris is sporting a classic CDO (Central Dense Overcast) with cloud tops around -75C, and evidence of northerly wind shear... decreasing with time. Chris is a small storm, and as such, will be easily influenced by shear, but conversely, will be quick to bounce back. SSTs under and ahead of the storm are a cozy 28C.
At 15Z today, TS Chris was located at 19.2N 63.4W, or just north of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands. It is heading WNW at 9kts, and the latest intensity is 55kts and 1001mb. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands... a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the western islands of the Bahamas. You can monitor the progress of the storm via radar in San Juan at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Over the next few days, it is expected to gradually strengthen to a hurricane, and continue a WNW heading, bringing it over the Bahamas on Saturday morning, and passing very close to southern Florida on Monday morning. The forecast track optimizes its stay over warm water and away from mountainous islands, allowing for the most intensification.
In the longer range, the central Gulf coast should be watching Chris with great interest. Once the storm passes over or near southern Florida on Sunday, the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. As of now, it appears that LA and TX would be the higher risks.
Elsewhere, a potent tropical wave just exited the African coast today. It had its earliest origins in the Ethiopian Highlands about a week ago and is favored by computer models to develop and become quite strong. The next name on deck is Debby.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
02 August 2006
01 August 2006
Chris forms near Leeward Islands...
Back on July 24, a tropical wave left the African coast. At 03Z today, that vigorous wave was upgraded to TD3 based on buoy and satellite data. Although initially fairly disorganized, vertical wind shear has relaxed and the Depression was further upgraded to the third named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chris, at 09Z today. It is still not well-organized -- the center is hard to find and the deep convection is scattered.
It is located just east of the islands of Barbuda and Antigua in the Leeward Island chain and heading for them, moving WNW at 9kts. The latest intensity estimate (15Z) is 35kts and 1009mb. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches cover the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, respectively.
The forecast is for continued strengthening over the next several days, and the track should take it over the Virgin Islands, north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba, and through the Bahamas. It presently appears that the southeast coast of Florida will want to monitor this storm very closely, as it could affect the state by Sunday as at least a strong TS.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
It is located just east of the islands of Barbuda and Antigua in the Leeward Island chain and heading for them, moving WNW at 9kts. The latest intensity estimate (15Z) is 35kts and 1009mb. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches cover the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, respectively.
The forecast is for continued strengthening over the next several days, and the track should take it over the Virgin Islands, north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba, and through the Bahamas. It presently appears that the southeast coast of Florida will want to monitor this storm very closely, as it could affect the state by Sunday as at least a strong TS.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
20 July 2006
Beryl brushes US east coast...
On Tuesday morning, an area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast was upgraded to TD2 based on buoy reports, visible satellite, and microwave satellite imagery. It has since drifted slowly northward along the coast, intensified slightly, as was further upgraded to TS Beryl. It's presently off the New Jersey coast (early Thursday afternoon), heading NNE, and gradually weakening in the face of ever-cooling sea surface temperatures. The latest intensity is 50kts and 1002mb.
An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England. A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA. Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.
Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now. There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England. A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA. Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.
Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now. There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)