Back on July 24, a tropical wave left the African coast. At 03Z today, that vigorous wave was upgraded to TD3 based on buoy and satellite data. Although initially fairly disorganized, vertical wind shear has relaxed and the Depression was further upgraded to the third named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chris, at 09Z today. It is still not well-organized -- the center is hard to find and the deep convection is scattered.
It is located just east of the islands of Barbuda and Antigua in the Leeward Island chain and heading for them, moving WNW at 9kts. The latest intensity estimate (15Z) is 35kts and 1009mb. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches cover the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, respectively.
The forecast is for continued strengthening over the next several days, and the track should take it over the Virgin Islands, north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba, and through the Bahamas. It presently appears that the southeast coast of Florida will want to monitor this storm very closely, as it could affect the state by Sunday as at least a strong TS.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
01 August 2006
20 July 2006
Beryl brushes US east coast...
On Tuesday morning, an area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast was upgraded to TD2 based on buoy reports, visible satellite, and microwave satellite imagery. It has since drifted slowly northward along the coast, intensified slightly, as was further upgraded to TS Beryl. It's presently off the New Jersey coast (early Thursday afternoon), heading NNE, and gradually weakening in the face of ever-cooling sea surface temperatures. The latest intensity is 50kts and 1002mb.
An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England. A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA. Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.
Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now. There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England. A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA. Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.
Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now. There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
13 June 2006
Alberto makes landfall...
At around 16Z today, Alberto came ashore near Dekle Beach, FL as a 45kt tropical storm. The MSLP was 996mb -- coastal locations to the east of the landfall point are experiencing 5-7' storm surges due to the shape and bathymetry of this portion of Florida (very easy to get big surges).
You can view a radar loop of the entire approach and landfall at
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/alberto06/Alberto_12-13Jun06.gif
Of note is the burst of deep convection near the circulation center as it comes inland, indicating enhanced frictional inflow. This is a fairly common, though ephemeral, last gasp of a tropical cyclone.
So far, 4 tornadoes have been reported in association with Alberto, and that threat remains high today in northern FL and eastern GA and SC. The other significant threat is flash flooding. It is forecast to zip off to the northeast as it merges with a mid-latitude trough, losing tropical characteristics as it does so.
Elsewhere, an easterly wave that exited the African coast on June 7 is now located near the Windward Islands. It's been moving west at 15kts and still disorganized, but will be watched! There is also a wave exiting Africa today, which had its root in the Ethiopian Highlands back on June 7. You can track waves' progress across the tropical Atlantic and Africa at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
You can view a radar loop of the entire approach and landfall at
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/alberto06/Alberto_12-13Jun06.gif
Of note is the burst of deep convection near the circulation center as it comes inland, indicating enhanced frictional inflow. This is a fairly common, though ephemeral, last gasp of a tropical cyclone.
So far, 4 tornadoes have been reported in association with Alberto, and that threat remains high today in northern FL and eastern GA and SC. The other significant threat is flash flooding. It is forecast to zip off to the northeast as it merges with a mid-latitude trough, losing tropical characteristics as it does so.
Elsewhere, an easterly wave that exited the African coast on June 7 is now located near the Windward Islands. It's been moving west at 15kts and still disorganized, but will be watched! There is also a wave exiting Africa today, which had its root in the Ethiopian Highlands back on June 7. You can track waves' progress across the tropical Atlantic and Africa at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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