Dennis becomes first hurricane...

Shortly before 22Z today, an aircraft recon mission into Dennis 
warranted upgrading it to a hurricane, the first of the season.  
Maximum sustained winds are 70kts and MSLP is 985mb.

The satellite presentation is improving hour by hour, so further 
intensification is certainly to be expected.  Hurricane Dennis will be 
affecting Jamaica tomorrow morning, then western Cuba on Friday 
afternoon.  The trek across the Gulf will take a couple days, so the 
northern Gulf coast residents should still be prepared for Sunday/Monday 
landfall.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Cindy makes landfall, Dennis nearly a hurricane...

Cindy made landfall near Grand Isle, LA as a strong tropical storm (60kt 
sustained winds) at about 03Z this morning.  As is typically the case 
with tropical storm landfalls, the winds were not the problem, or the 
storm surge, but the very heavy rain.  Up to 10" of rain has occurred 
or is expected in parts of LA, MS, AL, and further north along the 
track of the decaying tropical storm.  So far only minimal damage has 
been reported, all due to flooding.

Dennis continues to get better organized and is just shy of becoming 
the first hurricane of the season.  As of 21Z today, intensity was 
measured by aircraft to be 55kts and 987mb.  Motion is WNW at 12kts.  
It was located at 16.0N 72.5W... south of Haiti.  Environmental 
conditions are still very favorable, so further strengthening is 
expected.

The forecast is for further strengthening, probably reaching CAT3 status 
within the next 2-3 days before entering the Gulf.  Reiterating what I 
said yesterday, people along the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL) 
should be watching Dennis very closely and be prepared for a possible 
major hurricane on Sunday/Monday.  It's also seems reasonable that the 
FL Keys could begin optional evacuations soon due to Dennis' proximity 
in 72 hours.  The latest track forecast has a direct landfall as a major 
hurricane on Mobile, AL, but the error on the 5-day forecast is still 
quite large.  Currently, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for southern 
Haiti and all of Jamaica; Hurricane Watches are in effect for eastern 
Cuba and the Cayman Islands.  The forecast track is remarkably similar 
to that of Ivan 2004.

Dennis is of course the fourth named storm of the season, and set a new 
Atlantic record for the earliest to have four named storms (July 5).  
Not only is Africa generating more tropical waves than climatology would 
predict for this time of year, but the conditions in the deep tropics 
are abnormally favorable for those waves to develop due to the Bermuda 
High being further east and a bit weaker than normal.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Cindy and Dennis form in a very active early season...

On the afternoon of July 3, aircraft recon investigated a broad area of 
disturbed weather just off the eastern Yucatan coast and located a 
closed low-level circulation, warranting an upgrade to TD3.  It tracked 
right over the Yucatan peninsula, limiting any chance for immediate 
development.  By the morning of the 4th, it had entered the southern 
Gulf of Mexico and by the morning of the 5th (today) was upgraded to TS 
Cindy.

Cindy is not very well organized, and most of the deep convection and 
banding are on the eastern half.  As of 15Z, the storm was located at 
27.0N 90.4W and tracking N at 12kts.  Intensity is 45kts and 1002mb. 
 No significant changes in intensity are forecast before it makes 
landfall on southern Louisiana (near the Mississippi River delta) later 
tonight.  Although it's a weak storm, southern LA is extremely 
flood-prone because much of it is at or below sea level.  This track 
would actually be tragic for New Orleans if this were a major hurricane.  
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, LA 
eastward to Destin, FL.

At 03Z today, a strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea was 
upgraded to TD4.  At 15Z it was upgraded to TS Dennis, and the satellite 
presentation continues to improve.  This is extremely rare for three 
reasons: 1) this is the forth named storm and it's only July 5, 2) all 
four named storms have had purely tropical origins, and 3) the central 
Caribbean is climatologically hostile for development in July.  All 
signs point to Dennis becoming a hurricane within about 24 hours... 
very warm SSTs, low shear, and a robust circulation already in place.

As of 15Z, Dennis was located at 13.3N 66.6W and tracking WNW at 16kts.  
Yes, 16kts is very fast motion, but the easterlies are deep, so the 
vertical shear is still kept at a minimum.  The maximum sustained winds 
are 35kts and the MSLP is 1006mb.  The forecast track takes it between 
Cuba and Jamaica, then over western Cuba, then into the Gulf by early 
this weekend.  All residents of the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL 
panhandle) should be watching this very closely... landfall as a 
hurricane is quite possible on Sunday/Monday.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.