30 July 2013

Remnants of Dorian heading into Bahamas today

As of 9am EDT, Dorian's remnants (an open wave) are centered about 120 miles north of the Dominican Republic and tracking WNW at 12 mph.  It has entered a high-shear environment due to a strong upper-level trough extending down into Cuba and Hispaniola.  In the figure below, the wave is located approximately at the red X (look north of the Dominican Republic), while the upper-level trough and associated Low are shown with the green arrow and green L.  This feature generates very hostile winds for the development of a tropical cyclone.

Water vapor image showing upper-level features in the atmosphere.  The mid-level circulation of ex-Dorian is marked by the red X. (NOAA)
A close-up visible satellite image reveals a sheared storm as expected... with an exposed low-level center and all of the deep thunderstorms displaced downshear, or to the east in this case.


Given the poor organization and the bearish environmental outlook, most models are having a hard time even tracking this feature for very long.  So at least for the next few days, the only noticeable effect this will have is to bring enhanced chances of gusty winds and heavy rain to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, and Cuba... and eventually southern Florida by Wednesday evening into Thursday.



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