31 May 2013

Two potential tropical developments next week

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is tomorrow, and it may not take long to get the ball rolling.  On Wednesday, the East Pacific's Hurricane Barbara made landfall in southern Mexico, and the circulation passed over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.  The remnant surface trough is now over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and showing some signs of re-development.  While the ocean temperatures are plenty warm, the upper-level winds are a bit too strong right now.

Visible satellite image over the Bay of Campeche from 10:15am EDT today. (NRLMRY)

However, several global forecast models indicate that some sort of tropical cyclone will form in the Gulf and track toward the northern or eastern Gulf coast.  At this point, it is EXTREMELY nebulous and no cause for concern --  but is worth being aware of and keeping a closer eye on it.

Recent model runs showing predicted tracks of a disturbance in the Gulf 
(ECMWF in blue, CMC in magenta, GFS in red).  Both land-crossing 
solutions occur next Friday or into the weekend. (NOAA/EMC)

Elsewhere, an unseasonably strong cluster of thunderstorms has exited the African coast and is now centered near 8N 18W.  There is a 1008mb Low embedded in this disturbance, and there is a possibility that it could survive its trek across the deep tropics over the next several days.  Again, nothing imminent, but worth monitoring.

Enhanced infrared satellite image of the far eastern Atlantic.  
The disturbance is just off the African coast. (CIRA/RAMMB)



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