Two potential tropical developments next week

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is tomorrow, and it may not take long to get the ball rolling.  On Wednesday, the East Pacific's Hurricane Barbara made landfall in southern Mexico, and the circulation passed over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.  The remnant surface trough is now over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and showing some signs of re-development.  While the ocean temperatures are plenty warm, the upper-level winds are a bit too strong right now.

Visible satellite image over the Bay of Campeche from 10:15am EDT today. (NRLMRY)

However, several global forecast models indicate that some sort of tropical cyclone will form in the Gulf and track toward the northern or eastern Gulf coast.  At this point, it is EXTREMELY nebulous and no cause for concern --  but is worth being aware of and keeping a closer eye on it.

Recent model runs showing predicted tracks of a disturbance in the Gulf 

(ECMWF in blue, CMC in magenta, GFS in red).  Both land-crossing 

solutions occur next Friday or into the weekend. (NOAA/EMC)

Elsewhere, an unseasonably strong cluster of thunderstorms has exited the African coast and is now centered near 8N 18W.  There is a 1008mb Low embedded in this disturbance, and there is a possibility that it could survive its trek across the deep tropics over the next several days.  Again, nothing imminent, but worth monitoring.

Enhanced infrared satellite image of the far eastern Atlantic.  
The disturbance is just off the African coast. (CIRA/RAMMB)

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Will Barbara morph into Andrea?

Today's update is part Atlantic, part East Pacific!  Check it out on the Capital Weather Gang's blog:

A storm with two names: Will Barbara morph into Andrea?

Thanks for reading!

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The Moore Tornado, and Common Tornado-Hurricane Misperceptions

I recently wrote an article for my school's blog, and though its primary focus is on Monday's EF5 tornado that hit Moore, it wraps hurricanes into the mix by clearing up some occasional points of confusion that some people have between tornadoes and hurricanes.

 The Moore Tornado, and Common Tornado-Hurricane Misperceptions


As always, thanks for reading and sharing!

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Atlantic hurricane season 2013: What’s new and what should we expect?

For a second year, the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post has invited me to be their "tropical weather expert" to blog about... tropical weather!  The majority of my focus is on tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, with a particular emphasis on potential landfalling storms.  It's a privilege to be part of such a great group of weather enthusiasts and experts (meet the gang)!

Today's introductory post on the upcoming hurricane season can be found on the Capital Weather Gang blog.

For the benefit of new readers this year, you can learn more about me and what I do on my website.  I need to thank the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) for their support of this blog and encouraging public outreach.

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