15 August 2011

Franklin, Gert, and possibly Harvey...

During the weekend, the disturbance that was west of Bermuda (AL95) got slightly better organized and was upgraded to TD6 at 21Z on Friday.  Then at 09Z on Saturday, it was upgraded again TS Franklin, the sixth named storm of the season.  However, just 18 hours later, it has lost tropical characteristics and merged with a mid-latitude frontal system.  A short-lived and uneventful storm, like the rest of the storms in the Atlantic basin this season so far.

To add to that theme, Tropical Storm Gert is now churning east of Bermuda... this formed from the disturbance that I mentioned on Friday that was northeast of the Lesser Antilles (AL94).  The first advisory was written on this as TD7 at 03Z on the 14th.  The latest intensity is 50kts and 1000mb, and heading north at 10kts.  Some additional strengthening is still possible in the coming day or so before it too gets whisked away to the northern Atlantic TC graveyard.  Gert is the seventh named storm of the season, and if it does not become a hurricane in a hurry, this will be the first season in 160 years of records to have 7 named storms and 0 hurricanes.

Finally, AL93, the easterly wave that was near 30W on Friday, has continued its westward trek and is now near 58W... or about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  You can monitor its passage through the Lesser Antilles on radar: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html .  It's not too organized, but has had persistent convection since exiting Africa on the 10th.  This disturbance is strongly favored for intensification by the statistical models (SHIPS, LGEM, SHF5), but not so much by the dynamic models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF, GFDL).  If it does get named, the next name on the list is Harvey.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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