24 September 2008

Two systems may threaten US east coast in coming week...

The area of disturbed weather that was over eastern Hispaniola a couple days ago is just now exiting the northern coast of that island, leaving behind yet another round of devastating flash floods.  And as is typically the case, the island devastated the storm as well.  There's barely any deep convection remaining, and no evidence of a low-level center.  However, now that the mid-level circulation is over warm water, and there's minimal vertical shear, its chances for reorganization are pretty high.  In the coming days, it's expected to head north toward New England and Nova Scotia as a strong tropical/extratropical storm.

Elsewhere, a potent sub-tropical Low has formed immediately off the NC coast along a decaying frontal boundary.  Intensity is 1008mb and 55kts, and is located 250 miles SE of Wilmington.  It's forecast to track generally NW toward the coast, strengthen somewhat, and perhaps gradually acquire more tropical characteristics.  You can monitor it from the Morehead City NC radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Regardless of how it's classified, it is and will continue to be a hazard for coastal NC, producing strong winds, high seas, and eventually, a lot of inland rain.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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