03 September 2008

Hanna still stalled, Ike nearly a hurricane, Josephine getting organized...

Hanna is still over the eastern Bahamas, dumping rain over those islands, as well as Haiti and the Dominican Republic, both south of the storm's center.  Hanna is responsible for at least 23 deaths already, all due to flooding.  At the time of this writing, the center of poorly-organized TS Hanna is located just east of Great Inagua, Bahamas, and heading north at 5kts.  Intensity is 50kts and 997mb, and forecast to gradually strengthen to a minimal CAT1 hurricane over the next three days.  US landfall is expected early on Saturday near Myrtle Beach... or more correctly, somewhere in the GA/SC/NC vicinity.

Ike is now a 60kt tropical storm (just shy of hurricane intensity) near 21N 52W... several days away from anything.  While that sounds like a good thing, it gives the storm 4-5 days to intensify.  The official forecast brings Ike to a CAT3 hurricane over the Bahamas in five days.  The current satellite presentation is impressive... with symmetric outflow aloft, intense convection gathered over the center, and an eye opening in VIS and IR imagery.  Florida may want to keep a real close eye on this one for next Tuesday-Wednesday...

Finally, Josephine is still a TS as well, and now located near 14N 29W.  Intensity is 55kts, but vertical shear is beginning to increase, and it has a day or so to intensify until the shear becomes oppresive.  It is very far from any land, even looking out a full week.

I posted a brief summary of the "why?" behind the current flurry of activity at http://topics.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/hurricanes/ (Sep2, 7:45pm entry).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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