07 September 2007

Storm forming east of Georgia??

As I suggested in my last update on Wednesday, the US east coast should be on alert.  Although not a named storm yet, the storm between the Bahamas and Bermuda has persisted through some rough times of strong vertical wind shear and is now beginning to show signs of organization.  As the high pressure ridge to its north builds, not only will vertical shear lessen, the storm will also head west... toward the Carolinas.  Should this get named, it would become Gabrielle.  The future would take it generally W-NW, toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina during the weekend, possibly as a strong Tropical Storm or even a hurricane.

Another area of interest is near the Cape Verdes in the far eastern Atlantic.  A potent easterly wave has exited the African coast and is favored by several reliable computer models to develop.  Although these waves/disturbances can travel the entire width of the basin and hit the US or Mexico, this one (should it form) looks like it would recurve fairly far east due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

Also, you can follow along with tropical Atlantic activity on a blog run by the New York Times... I'm quite honored to be among such great company as Hugh Willoughby, Dave Nolan, and Bob Hartwig as co-contributors.
There you'll find periodic updates from any or all 4 of us.
(If you're not already registered to view content at nytimes.com, registration is easy and free.)

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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