10 September 2007

Gabrielle forms and hits NC... another storm brewing in deep tropics...

On Wednesday and Friday of last week, I wrote about a potentially developing storm off the southeast coast of the US.  On Friday night, it was upgraded to Sub-Tropical Storm Gabrielle and by Saturday afternoon had transitioned to Tropical Storm Gabrielle.  It was heading west toward the coast as expected, and made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC midday Sunday as a 45kt tropical storm.  It's since been downgraded to a Depression and is getting strongly sheared from the west.  The remnant low-level circulation is located about 300 miles east of the DelMarVa peninsula and is being whisked northeastward by an encroaching trough.

Now, the primary area of concern shifts to a strong easterly wave tracking across the deep tropics, presently near 10N 40W.
It exited the African coast last Wednesday, and has been fairly slow to pull itself together.  Satellite imagery reveals an anticyclone in place aloft, and a developing low- and mid- level cyclonic circulation.  The latest sfc analysis shows a 1010mb Low with the wave.  Given current appearance and trends, this could become TD8 later today.  As far as its future is concerned, there appears to be little in its way to hinder further intensification, so another named storm is more or less expected out of it.  The track could be influenced by a deep trough in the central Atlantic, allowing it to move a bit northward over the next few days, maybe giving the Caribbean nations a break.  The next name on the list is Humberto.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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