29 August 2002

Suspicious wave becomes TD4 in eastern Atlantic.

At 15Z today, the wave featured in yesterday's update was upgraded to a
Tropical Depression, the fourth of the season.  The intensity is based
on satellite imagery... persistent deep convection over or near the
low-level center.  It was located at 9.6N 32.2W and moving WNW at
14kts.  The heading and speed are expected to continue for the next few
days, perhaps turning a bit north of WNW by three days.  Winds are 30kts
with MSLP of 1007mb.  Although the environment is favorable (low shear,
warm SST, climatology), the forecast track moves it into much less
favorable conditions.  So, it may strengthen a bit in the short term,
likely becoming the fourth named storm, but may run into big problems as
the weekend comes to a close due to vertical shear.  If the forecast
track verifies, TD4 will not threaten any land mass.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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