An organizing low pressure system is centered about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral and is bringing significant rain to the Florida peninsula on Monday afternoon -- it has been designated as Invest 93L. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% probability of formation through the weekend... the proximity to land should keep the probability low of anything too strong developing, but that won't stop it from raining.
Should this develop into a tropical storm this week, the next name on the list is Dexter. Dexter is a new name on this list's rotation, it replaces Dorian which was retired after the 2019 season.
It's worth noting that the water temperature in the central and northeast Gulf of Mexico is anomalously warm, so that provides a little extra nudge to development, especially if the center of circulation stays a little further offshore and gives it another day or two over water.
As this low pressure system treks westward across Florida and then along the northern Gulf coast, it will dump plenty of rain, and the threat of flash flooding will ooze westward from Florida to Louisiana from today through Friday. These five-day forecast rainfall totals will evolve, but as of Monday afternoon you can see where the highest totals could fall.
I didn't write posts on Barry or Chantal, but they formed and dissipated quickly, adding a combined total of just two named storm days. Barry formed on June 29 and Chantal on July 5. The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is at about 24% of average for the date -- you can barely see 2025's yellow line on this plot:
- Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
- Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
- Follow me on Bluesky
