A welcome late-August pause in activity

Track map of Atlantic tropical cyclones through August 23. The peak wind and minimum pressure for each are listed in the upper-right corner.

Grace made landfall in Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane on Saturday, Henri made landfall in Rhode Island on Sunday as a tropical storm, and there are just a couple of long-range areas of interest to watch for development. This seems like a good time to summarize where the season stands.

Grace ended up dissipating over the mountains of Mexico, and then reformed on the East Pacific side, earning a new name: Marty.  If it had maintained at least tropical depression status, it would have kept the name Grace.  Grace was the season's first major hurricane, and first case of rapid intensification (which unfortunately occurred just prior to making landfall).

Henri was the season's third hurricane, but it weakened to a tropical storm just before landfall in Rhode Island.  Although the storm surge was not as bad as feared, Henri produced (and still is producing!) a lot of rain in the northeast.  Flood watches and warnings are still in effect in several states in the northeast.

Three-day rainfall estimates, valid from Friday morning through Monday morning.

This 2-day radar loop covers Henri from hurricane status to landfall to weakening and drifting around.

This and other radar loops are available at http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Through August 23rd, the season's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is at 171% of the average value over the past fifty years. It's 1.2x what 2020 was on August 23rd, and it's the highest since 2008 at this point in the season.  This time of year is climatologically very active, so every day without a named storm, the 2021 line will get closer to "average" -- it will reach average on September 1st if nothing else forms by then.

Now on to the next areas of interest.  There are two: one is currently over the Windward Islands and has a chance of development in the western Caribbean by the weekend, and the other is just west of Cabo Verde and has a chance of development east of Bermuda by the weekend.  As of Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center is giving both areas a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days.

When the time comes, the next name on the list is Ida.  Trivia tidbit: "I" storms are historically the most-frequently retired.

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