May storms don’t mean hurricane season should start earlier

Since we just had Tropical Storm Ana form last week, the question arises: should we move up the start date of the official hurricane season?  I chime in for this Capital Weather Gang post on the topic:

Hurricane Center: May storms don’t mean hurricane season should start earlier

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Ana weakens over land, still spinning over North Carolina

Since my last update on Friday morning, Tropical Storm Ana made landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC early Sunday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.  While this may not seem like a significant event, to the best of my knowledge, this was the strongest U.S. landfall so early in the season.

During the course of Ana's passage, peak rainfall and wind gusts reports include 4.3" of rain at Myrtle Beach SC, and a gust to 62 mph in Southport NC.  Strong rainbands have also been raking areas further east in North Carolina. The graphic below shows the estimated rainfall between Friday at 8am through today at 8am.

Estimated three-day rainfall totals spanning Fri 8am through Mon 8am. (NOAA)

 The radar and satellite images below were captured from very near the time of Ana's landfall:

Radar image of Ana near the time of landfall. (College of DuPage)

Satellite image of Ana near the time of landfall. (CIRA/RAMMB)

As of this writing at 8am EDT, the center of Ana's remnants is still very well defined and is located about 50 miles east of Raleigh NC. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds will affect central and eastern NC today, and up into VA and the DelMarVa peninsula as well.  You can view a current regional radar loop here.  This storm's development and track was remarkably well-forecast by global models going back 8 or so days... sometimes it's nice to not have surprises!

Visible satellite image from 7:45am EDT showing the cloud field associated with the remnants of Ana. (RAL)

As a reminder, hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and the next name on the list is Bill.

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Subtropical Storm Ana has formed from the area of disturbed weather I've been discussing all week.  My morning update on it and the forecast can be found on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog:

Subtropical Storm Ana will bring days of unsettled weather to the Carolinas

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Low pressure system drifting toward North Carolina

Since yesterday, the low pressure system I've been discussing this week off the southeast US coast has gotten slightly better organized, but still is not much more than a nuisance rain-maker. There is quite a bit of dry air wrapping into the circulation, but an area of heavier rain is developing to the west and northwest of the center.

Visible satellite image from 8:30am EDT... the center of the surface circulation is marked with a blue X.  The heaviest rain and thunderstorms are displaced to the west and northwest. (NASA)

As of 8am EDT today, the center is located about 240 miles south of Wilmington, NC and is crawling toward the north. An aircraft is en route to reconnoiter the system to accurately determine the central pressure and wind field. As of now, it appears subtropical in nature (meaning it has some traits of a tropical system and some of an extratropical system), but even subtropical depressions/storms get numbered/named. If the aircraft fins sufficient organization, it could be upgraded to STD1 or STS Ana (if tropical, it would be TD1 or TS Ana).

As mentioned in previous posts, the primary threat from this will be heavy rain for eastern SC and NC. The radar composite from 8:30am EDT today shows heavy rain already affecting northeastern SC and parts of coastal NC (a current loop is available here).  Rainfall totals of 2-6" are possible over the eastern Carolinas through Saturday. Some gusty winds in the 35-50 mph range could be observed along the coast as well.

Radar composite from 8:30am EDT... only the rain within range of the various radar sites can be shown. (NOAA)

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Odds favor a tropical or subtropical storm heading for the Carolinas

Wednesday morning update on the low pressure system developing off the southeast US coast:

Odds favor a tropical or subtropical storm heading for the Carolinas

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Today's update on the disturbance near the Bahamas is available on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog again today.  As always, thanks for reading and sharing!

Early-season Atlantic disturbance forecast to bring wet weather to Southeast

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A pre-season tropical disturbance could develop off the southeast U.S. coast this week... possible heavy rain in Florida up to the Carolinas.  You can read the full blog post on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog:

Tropical storm possible late this week near the Carolinas

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