28 June 2012

Easterly wave struggling

With Debby well offshore and extratropical, it's time to focus on the easterly wave that I mentioned in yesterday's update.  It left Africa nearly a week ago, and is now near 43W, or about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands.  The visible satellite image shows a small area of convection located near the diffuse wave axis:

It's in about 10kts of shear, and at the leading edge of a large envelope of high TPW (total precipitable moisture) as shown below.
And again, you can use http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/ to track its journey... a new sliver of an infrared image of the deep tropical Atlantic is added every 12 hours, allowing you to go back several days and find persistent, trackable features, such as easterly waves!
This may be my last post about this wave unless it gets better organized... as it stands now, it may not be a trackable entity for much longer, and the global models are not too optimistic about it.

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